After a steady year in the air freight market, October marks the start of a busier period as peak season begins. We expect demand to rise in the coming weeks as retailers give a final push to import goods from overseas to meet the Christmas shopping demand. 

Looking Back at 2025 So Far

Global air freight demand was up year-on-year through mid-summer, supported by steady e-commerce volumes and a recovery in passenger flights, adding more cargo space in passenger aircraft. This has meant a relatively balanced market for most of the year, with good space availability overall. There were a few periods of tightness on key Asia lanes, but capacity has generally kept pace with demand.

What’s Shaping the Market Right Now

Golden Week ripple effects. Factory and office closures in China during Golden Week create a short pause in exports, followed by a gradual restart. That typically leads to a mini-surge just before and in the days after the holiday as backlogs clear, with some schedule changes possible.

Capacity management. Airlines have been adjusting available capacity to match demand, helping to keep space generally available. Where demand spikes, space can tighten on certain routes.

E-commerce and late orders. Online sales and last-minute retail orders remain a key driver of urgent uplift into Europe in the run-up to Christmas. This is the time when retailers finalise stock levels, top up inventory, and rush in seasonal products to meet shopper demand, often switching to air freight to keep shelves full and avoid missed sales.

Outlook for the Rest of the Year

October: We are now in the peak season for air freight, which typically runs from late September through early December. Expect a busier period as factories reopen after Golden Week and backlogs are cleared. Space is likely to tighten temporarily, with some late production orders switching from sea freight to air to meet delivery deadlines.

November–December: This is the busiest time of year, driven by the pre-Christmas retail rush and major e-commerce events such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Demand usually increases as retailers switch urgent cargo to air, which can lead to capacity constraints and upward pressure on costs across the market. Airlines will continue to manage available capacity carefully to keep supply and demand in balance.

After early December, volumes usually taper off quickly, with the exception of some last-minute replenishment and e-commerce shipments.

How PFE Can Help

When time matters, our air services keep you on schedule. We provide tailored solutions that meet urgent shipping needs and critical deadlines, helping you maintain smooth operations and stay competitive in a demanding environment.

  • Guaranteed capacity with major carriers on all key routes through our global network.
  • Fast UK clearance via our experienced Customs team and CFSP warehousing options.
  • Same-day and next-day UK delivery via our road network.
  • Rapid turnarounds: our Witham hub is within 25 miles of Stansted, so we regularly deliver within hours of touchdown.

PFE’s air freight specialists can help plan the weeks ahead, advising on routings, service levels and uplift windows to keep your urgent cargo moving smoothly around Golden Week recoveries and pre-Christmas cut-offs.

If you think we can offer a solution to help, or if you would like a quote, please contact our Air Freight department on 01753 278020.